Europe’s compact minivan segment is forecast to continually decline until 2020 because of rising demand for SUVs and crossovers. The overall annual volume for models such as the Volkswagen Touran and Renault Scenic is expected to slip below 500,000 in 2020 from 644,300 last year, according to LMC Automotive, which also predicts flat sales of about 167,000 a year for premium models in the sector during the rest of the decade.
Last year, total sales in the segment dropped by 4.4% to 820,3000, with volume models decreasing almost 7%. Sales of premium compact minivans, led by BMW’s 2-series Active and Grand Tourer, grew in 2016, but they lost ground in the first two months of this year, according to data from JATO Dynamics. Sales are on the decline because automakers are either replacing their compact minivans with SUVs or launching SUVs that offer much of the flexibility and practicality typically found in their minivans.
That popularity is well illustrated by what has happened at Peugeot. The French automaker replaced its 3008 minivan with a SUV-styled successor that uses the same name in late 2016. Peugeot sold twice as many 3008s in the first two months of the year and its volume of 21,431 units was better than Europe’s biggest-selling minivan, the VW Touran, during that time frame, according to JATO data. In 2016, the Touran was the dominant compact minivan in Europe. Sales of the model, which was replaced in 2015, rose 52% last year to 112,850 units. The Touran’s sales, however, have slowed as its two-month volume was down 8%. The minivan, which is available with seven seats, will come under further pressure when the seven-seat Allspace version of the Tiguan compact SUV goes on sale later this year.
